Yantra 2019 1–4 Dunav Ruse: Result & Stats

Yantra 2019

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Dunav Ruse

1/18/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Yantra 201930%

×Draw25%

Dunav Ruse45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yantra 2019Expected goals in this matchDunav Ruse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.58

Yantra 2019

1.24

Dunav Ruse

1.58

Dunav Ruse creates 27% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

0.90

creates per match

1.86

1.30

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Yantra 2019

0.90

Dunav Ruse

1.86

allows per match

Yantra 2019

1.30

Dunav Ruse

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra 2019 ↓

Dunav Ruse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Yantra 2019 or draw

55%

Yantra 2019 or Dunav Ruse

75%

Draw or Dunav Ruse

70%

Winning margin

Yantra 2019 wins by 2+

13%

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Yantra 2019 1+ goals

71%

Yantra 2019 2+ goals

35%

Yantra 2019 3+ goals

13%

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals

79%

Dunav Ruse 2+ goals

47%

Dunav Ruse 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)

40%

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra 2019 at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Dunav Ruse away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra 2019 attack 0.90 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.24

Dunav Ruse attack 1.86 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Yantra 2019 scores more

30%

level

25%

Dunav Ruse scores more

45%

Dunav Ruse at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff