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Yanbian Longding vs Jinan Xingzhou — League One 2018

Yanbian Longding
Yanbian Longding
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jinan Xingzhou
Jinan Xingzhou
9/10/2023League OneLeague One · Round 22Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yanbian Longding44%
×Draw28%
Jinan Xingzhou28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yanbian Longding
1.34
Jinan Xingzhou
1.00

Yanbian Longding creates 34% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 15 away

creates per match

Yanbian Longding
1.56
Jinan Xingzhou
1.07

allows per match

Yanbian Longding
0.94
Jinan Xingzhou
1.13

finishing

Yanbian Longding+0.00on par
Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yanbian Longding ↓

Jinan Xingzhou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Yanbian Longding or draw
72%
Yanbian Longding or Jinan Xingzhou
72%
Draw or Jinan Xingzhou
56%

Winning margin

Yanbian Longding wins by 2+
21%
Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Yanbian Longding 1+ goals
74%
Yanbian Longding 2+ goals
39%
Yanbian Longding 3+ goals
15%
Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals
63%
Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals
26%
Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Yanbian Longding (draw refunded)
61%
Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yanbian Longding at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.94 · 52 matches

Jinan Xingzhou away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yanbian Longding attack 1.56 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.07 + Yanbian Longding defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Yanbian Longding scores more
44%
level
28%
Jinan Xingzhou scores more
28%

Yanbian Longding at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Yanbian Longding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yanbian Longding vs Jinan Xingzhou

Yanbian Longding beat Jinan Xingzhou 1-0 in League One on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium in Yanji.