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Jinan Xingzhou vs Yanbian Longding — League One 2018

Jinan Xingzhou
Jinan Xingzhou
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Yanbian Longding
Yanbian Longding
5/27/2023League OneLeague One · Round 7Shandong Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jinan Xingzhou45%
×Draw29%
Yanbian Longding26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jinan Xingzhou
1.27
Yanbian Longding
0.90

Jinan Xingzhou creates 41% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 52 away

creates per match

Jinan Xingzhou
1.20
Yanbian Longding
0.87

allows per match

Jinan Xingzhou
0.93
Yanbian Longding
1.35

finishing

Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par
Yanbian Longding+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jinan Xingzhou ↓

Yanbian Longding →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Jinan Xingzhou or draw
74%
Jinan Xingzhou or Yanbian Longding
71%
Draw or Yanbian Longding
55%

Winning margin

Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+
20%
Yanbian Longding wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals
72%
Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals
36%
Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals
14%
Yanbian Longding 1+ goals
59%
Yanbian Longding 2+ goals
23%
Yanbian Longding 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)
63%
Yanbian Longding (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jinan Xingzhou at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Yanbian Longding away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.35 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.20 + Yanbian Longding defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Yanbian Longding attack 0.87 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jinan Xingzhou scores more
45%
level
29%
Yanbian Longding scores more
26%

Jinan Xingzhou at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jinan Xingzhou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Jinan Xingzhou 2–0 Yanbian Longding

Jinan Xingzhou beat Yanbian Longding 2-0 in League One on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Shandong Provincial Stadium in Ji'nan.