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Yanbian Longding vs Jinan Xingzhou — League Two 2022

Yanbian Longding
Yanbian Longding
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jinan Xingzhou
Jinan Xingzhou
8/9/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 8Dalian Youth Football Training Base No. 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Yanbian Longding20%
×Draw25%
Jinan Xingzhou54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yanbian Longding
0.85
Jinan Xingzhou
1.57

Jinan Xingzhou creates 85% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Yanbian Longding
1.00
Jinan Xingzhou
1.57

allows per match

Yanbian Longding
1.57
Jinan Xingzhou
0.71

finishing

Yanbian Longding+0.00on par
Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yanbian Longding ↓

Jinan Xingzhou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Yanbian Longding or draw
46%
Yanbian Longding or Jinan Xingzhou
75%
Draw or Jinan Xingzhou
80%

Winning margin

Yanbian Longding wins by 2+
6%
Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Yanbian Longding 1+ goals
57%
Yanbian Longding 2+ goals
21%
Yanbian Longding 3+ goals
5%
Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals
79%
Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals
46%
Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Yanbian Longding (draw refunded)
27%
Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yanbian Longding at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Jinan Xingzhou away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yanbian Longding attack 1.00 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.57 + Yanbian Longding defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Yanbian Longding scores more
20%
level
25%
Jinan Xingzhou scores more
54%

Jinan Xingzhou at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Jinan Xingzhou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yanbian Longding vs Jinan Xingzhou

Yanbian Longding beat Jinan Xingzhou 1-0 in League Two on August 9, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Youth Football Training Base No. 9 in Dalian.