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Xinjiang Tianshan vs Guizhou Zhicheng — League One 2018

Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
9/26/2021League OneLeague One · 2nd Phase - 14Tazi Lake Sports Centre Football Field 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Xinjiang Tianshan30%
×Draw25%
Guizhou Zhicheng46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xinjiang Tianshan
1.23
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.59

Guizhou Zhicheng creates 29% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 41 away

creates per match

Xinjiang Tianshan
1.08
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.05

allows per match

Xinjiang Tianshan
2.13
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.37

finishing

Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xinjiang Tianshan ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Xinjiang Tianshan or draw
54%
Xinjiang Tianshan or Guizhou Zhicheng
75%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
70%

Winning margin

Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
12%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
71%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
35%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
13%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
80%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
47%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
39%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xinjiang Tianshan at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.13 · 76 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 1.08 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.23

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.05 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
30%
level
25%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
46%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Xinjiang Tianshan vs Guizhou Zhicheng

Xinjiang Tianshan and Guizhou Zhicheng drew 1-1 in League One on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Tazi Lake Sports Centre Football Field 3 in Wuhan.