Xinjiang Tianshan 1–2 Guizhou Zhicheng

Xinjiang Tianshan

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Guizhou Zhicheng

K. Onuegbu 90'

A. Maglica 73', 59'

11/5/2020

League One · Relegation Round - 4Wuhua People's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Xinjiang Tianshan29%

×Draw25%

Guizhou Zhicheng46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Xinjiang TianshanExpected goals in this matchGuizhou Zhicheng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.58

Xinjiang Tianshan

1.19

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.58

Guizhou Zhicheng creates 33% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 40 away

1.05

creates per match

1.05

2.11

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Xinjiang Tianshan

1.05

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.05

allows per match

Xinjiang Tianshan

2.11

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xinjiang Tianshan ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Xinjiang Tianshan or draw

54%

Xinjiang Tianshan or Guizhou Zhicheng

75%

Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng

71%

Winning margin

Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+

12%

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals

70%

Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals

33%

Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals

12%

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals

79%

Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals

47%

Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)

38%

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xinjiang Tianshan at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.11 · 75 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.32 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 1.05 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.05 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Xinjiang Tianshan scores more

29%

level

25%

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more

46%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Ibrahim Kurban← Dilxat Ablimit

35'

59'

73'

75'

77'

Zhang Ao← B. Kanakimana

77'

Elbug Chagtsel← Ibrahim Kurban

86'

Mirdan Ablikim← Sabit Abdusalam

86'

Abdulla Abduwal← Nurmemet Tursun

89'

Zhang Mengqi← Min Junlin

90'

K. Onuegbu

Xinjiang

Guizhou

30

31

2

27

5

21

6

39

▼

Yunlong

18

▼

Junlin

34

Haisheng

10

⚽2

▼

1

6

22

2

▼

Tursun

21

▼

Ablimit

15

Mijit

28

Haozhi

10

▼

Abdusalam

11

Musajan

7

⚽

Onuegbu

25

▼

Kanakiman

Manager: Ashar Qeriazdan

35'▲Ibrahim Kurban←▼Dilxat Ablimit

77'▲Zhang Ao←▼B. Kanakimana

77'▲Elbug Chagtsel←▼Ibrahim Kurban

86'▲Mirdan Ablikim←▼Sabit Abdusalam

86'▲Abdulla Abduwal←▼Nurmemet Tursun

Xinjiang Tianshan substitutes

23Kurban16Ao26Chagtsel8Ablikim17Abduwal3Eniwar5Alimjan9Ablikim12Junjie14Abdukerem18Jiachi29Ilhar

Manager: Chen Mao

35'▲J. Hyka←▼Fan Yunlong

75'▲Gui Hong←▼A. Maglica

89'▲Zhang Mengqi←▼Min Junlin

Guizhou Zhicheng substitutes

11Hyka9Hong15Mengqi3Jiahao13Bin14Zhengyu16Zhuo17Ilhamjan25Zhi26Ze29Mihajlović45Han