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Guizhou Zhicheng vs Xinjiang Tianshan — League One 2018

Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Xinjiang Tianshan
Xinjiang Tianshan
9/9/2021League OneLeague One · 2nd Phase - 10Tazi Lake Sports Centre Football Field 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng57%
×Draw24%
Xinjiang Tianshan20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.73
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.91

Guizhou Zhicheng creates 90% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 72 away

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.30
Xinjiang Tianshan
0.63

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.18
Xinjiang Tianshan
2.15

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par
Xinjiang Tianshan+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Xinjiang Tianshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw
80%
Guizhou Zhicheng or Xinjiang Tianshan
76%
Draw or Xinjiang Tianshan
43%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
32%
Xinjiang Tianshan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
82%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
52%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
25%
Xinjiang Tianshan 1+ goals
60%
Xinjiang Tianshan 2+ goals
23%
Xinjiang Tianshan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
74%
Xinjiang Tianshan (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Xinjiang Tianshan away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.15 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.30 + Xinjiang Tianshan defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.73

Xinjiang Tianshan attack 0.63 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
57%
level
24%
Xinjiang Tianshan scores more
20%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guizhou Zhicheng vs Xinjiang Tianshan

Guizhou Zhicheng beat Xinjiang Tianshan 1-0 in League One on September 9, 2021.

The match was played at Tazi Lake Sports Centre Football Field 3 in Wuhan.