Wydad AC 4–1 Difaa EL Jadida: Result & Stats

Wydad AC

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Difaa EL Jadida

M. Rayhi 90+5'

I. Moutaraji 70'

W. Nassi Ouled Bentle 47'

N. Marmouk 45+6'

Y. Fatine 39' (pen)

9/28/2024

Botola Pro · Round 4Stade Larbi Zaouli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Wydad AC54%

×Draw24%

Difaa EL Jadida22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wydad ACExpected goals in this matchDifaa EL Jadida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.95

Wydad AC

1.66

Difaa EL Jadida

0.95

Wydad AC creates 75% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 106 away

1.76

creates per match

1.04

0.85

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Wydad AC

1.76

Difaa EL Jadida

1.04

allows per match

Wydad AC

0.85

Difaa EL Jadida

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Difaa EL Jadida →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw

78%

Wydad AC or Difaa EL Jadida

76%

Draw or Difaa EL Jadida

46%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+

29%

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals

81%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

49%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

23%

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals

61%

Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals

25%

Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

71%

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.85 · 116 matches

Difaa EL Jadida away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.55 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 1.76 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.66

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.04 + Wydad AC defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Wydad AC scores more

54%

level

24%

Difaa EL Jadida scores more

22%

Wydad AC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Nabil Marmouk

37'

Soufiane Abaaziz

39'

Y. FatinePenalty

45+8'

Adil El Hassnaoui

45+1'

Marouane Hadhoudi

45+6'

N. Marmouk

47'

W. Nassi Ouled Bentle

59'

Arthur← M. Niang

60'

M. Rayhi← O. Mahrous

60'

M. El Moubarik← W. Nassi Ouled Bentle

64'

O. Jerrari← Y. Arbidi

64'

R. Majji← S. Abaaziz

64'

M. Sahd← O. El Hanoudi

70'

I. Moutaraji

71'

Pedrinho← I. Moutaraji

77'

A. Bossu← K. Baba

77'

H. Faris← A. El Hassnaoui

80'

Renan Viana← N. Chadli

90+8'

90+7'

90+7'

90+1'

90+5'

Wydad4-3-3

Difaa5-2-3

11

▼

Baba

27

▼

Arbidi

77

▼

Hanoudi

24

▼

Hassnaoui

3

Arjoune

23

▼

15

22

4

20

⚽

1

32

3

4

⚽

Marmouk

13

Dairani

2

Moufid

18

⚽

▼

Moutaraji

5

▼

Mahrous

22

Sakhi

11

⚽

▼

Bentle

9

▼

Niang

28

▼

Chadli

Manager: R. Mokwena

59'▲Arthur←▼M. Niang

60'▲M. Rayhi←▼O. Mahrous

60'▲M. El Moubarik←▼W. Nassi Ouled Bentle

71'▲Pedrinho←▼I. Moutaraji

80'▲Renan Viana←▼N. Chadli

Wydad AC substitutes

10Arthur8Rayhi19Moubarik33Pedrinho7Viana12M'Hamdi21Mailula23Zemraoui27Benktib

Manager: Jorge Paixão

64'▲O. Jerrari←▼Y. Arbidi

64'▲R. Majji←▼S. Abaaziz

64'▲M. Sahd←▼O. El Hanoudi

77'▲A. Bossu←▼K. Baba

77'▲H. Faris←▼A. El Hassnaoui

Difaa EL Jadida substitutes

13Jerrari7Majji31Sahd12Bossu17Faris2Benchaoui16Wahmane5Aguerdoum10Kpatai

Botola Pro: Wydad AC 4–1 Difaa EL Jadida

Wydad AC beat Difaa EL Jadida 4-1 in Botola Pro on September 28, 2024.

Goals: Y. Fatine (39' pen), N. Marmouk (45+6'), W. Nassi Ouled Bentle (47'), I. Moutaraji (70'), M. Rayhi (90+5').

The match was played at Stade Larbi Zaouli in Casablanca.

Wydad AC vs Difaa EL Jadida — Botola Pro 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Botola Pro: Wydad AC 4–1 Difaa EL Jadida