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Difaa EL Jadida vs Wydad AC — Botola Pro 2025

Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Wydad AC
Wydad AC
C. Mailula 61'
M. Rayhi 38' (pen)
1/19/2025Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 19Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Difaa EL Jadida31%
×Draw30%
Wydad AC39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Difaa EL Jadida
0.98
Wydad AC
1.13

Wydad AC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 115 away

creates per match

Difaa EL Jadida
1.01
Wydad AC
1.29

allows per match

Difaa EL Jadida
0.96
Wydad AC
0.96

finishing

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difaa EL Jadida ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Difaa EL Jadida or draw
61%
Difaa EL Jadida or Wydad AC
70%
Draw or Wydad AC
69%

Winning margin

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
11%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
62%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
26%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
8%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
68%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
31%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
45%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difaa EL Jadida at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.96 · 106 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.96 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.01 + Wydad AC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Wydad AC attack 1.29 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Difaa EL Jadida scores more
31%
level
30%
Wydad AC scores more
39%

Wydad AC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
M. RayhiPenalty
42'
Youssef El Motie
45'
Ismail Moutaraji
60'
M. Enzo← S. Bouna Amar
60'
H. Sakhi← S. Bouhra
61'
C. Mailula
66'
Ayman Dairani
68'
M. Kpatai← A. El Hassnaoui
68'
M. Sahd← A. Kanou
76'
N. Marmouk← A. Dairani
76'
Arthur← M. Rayhi
78'
R. Majji← K. Baba
80'
Hassan Faris
81'
H. Jamaane← Y. Arbidi
82'
Hiudaifa Jamaane
90+1'
Z. Nassik← C. Mailula

Statistics

DifaaWydad
Discipline
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

Botola Pro: Difaa EL Jadida 0–2 Wydad AC

Wydad AC beat Difaa EL Jadida 2-0 in Botola Pro on January 19, 2025.

Goals: M. Rayhi (38' pen), C. Mailula (61').

The match was played at Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi in Mazghan.