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Difaa EL Jadida vs Wydad AC — Cup 2020

Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Wydad AC
Wydad ACadvanced
H. Darai 59'
A. El Hassouni 74' (pen)
A. Farhane 37'
5/24/2023CupCup · Quarter-finalsStade Ben Ahmed El Abdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Difaa EL Jadida33%
×Draw23%
Wydad AC44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Difaa EL Jadida
1.50
Wydad AC
1.75

Wydad AC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Difaa EL Jadida
2.33
Wydad AC
2.17

allows per match

Difaa EL Jadida
1.33
Wydad AC
0.67

finishing

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difaa EL Jadida ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Difaa EL Jadida or draw
56%
Difaa EL Jadida or Wydad AC
77%
Draw or Wydad AC
67%

Winning margin

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
16%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
78%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
44%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
19%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
83%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
52%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
43%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difaa EL Jadida at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difaa EL Jadida attack 2.33 + Wydad AC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Wydad AC attack 2.17 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Difaa EL Jadida scores more
33%
level
23%
Wydad AC scores more
44%

Wydad AC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
A. Farhane
59'
H. Darai
74'
A. El HassouniPenalty
90+5'
D. Amale

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Difaa EL Jadida vs Wydad AC

Wydad AC beat Difaa EL Jadida 2-1 in Cup on May 24, 2023.

Goals: A. Farhane (37'), H. Darai (59'), A. El Hassouni (74' pen).

The match was played at Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi in Mazghan.