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Wydad AC vs Al Ahly — CAF Champions League 2019

Wydad AC
Wydad AC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Ahly
Al Ahly
Y. Attiat-Allah 27'
Mohamed Abdelmonem 78'
6/11/2023CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · FinalStade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Wydad AC50%
×Draw28%
Al Ahly23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad AC
1.38
Al Ahly
0.83

Wydad AC creates 66% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 45 away

creates per match

Wydad AC
2.14
Al Ahly
1.24

allows per match

Wydad AC
0.43
Al Ahly
0.62

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par
Al Ahly+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Al Ahly →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw
77%
Wydad AC or Al Ahly
72%
Draw or Al Ahly
50%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+
24%
Al Ahly wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals
75%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
40%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
16%
Al Ahly 1+ goals
56%
Al Ahly 2+ goals
20%
Al Ahly 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)
69%
Al Ahly (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.43 · 28 matches

Al Ahly away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 2.14 + Al Ahly defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.38

Al Ahly attack 1.24 + Wydad AC defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wydad AC scores more
50%
level
28%
Al Ahly scores more
23%

Wydad AC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
Y. JabraneWydad ACWydad AC · M
7.9

Match Events

27'
Y. Attiat-Allah
36'
Kahraba
41'
Hussein El Shahat
45+6'
Saifeddine Bouhra
50'
Aliou Dieng
59'
Mohamed Magdi Kafsha← Hussein El Shahat
59'
Ahmed Abdelkader← Marwan Attia
66'
Z. El Moutaraji← S. Bouhra
72'
Mohamed Sherif← Kahraba
72'
Amr El Soleya← Hamdi Fathy
78'
Mohamed Abdelmonem↳ A. Maâloul
80'
R. Jaadi← A. El Hassouni
86'
Rami Rabia← P. Tau
87'
Ali Maâloul
89'
H. Ahadad← M. Ounajem
90+10'
Mohamed Abdelmonem
90+7'
Mohamed Hany

Possession

53%Wydad

Shots

6Wydad

Pass accuracy

50%Wydad

Statistics

WydadAl
Overview
53%Possession47%
6Total Shots7
4Corners3
9Fouls19
Shots
6Total Shots7
1On Target3
3Off Target0
2Blocked4
5Inside Box5
1Outside Box2
Passing
53%Possession47%
385Total Passes337
290Accurate Passes250
75%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
9Fouls19
1Yellow Cards6
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Wydad AC vs Al Ahly

Wydad AC and Al Ahly drew 1-1 in CAF Champions League on June 11, 2023.

Goals: Y. Attiat-Allah (27'), Mohamed Abdelmonem (78').

Wydad AC controlled possession (53%) and registered 6 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca.