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Wydad AC vs Al Ahly — CAF Champions League 2019

Wydad AC
Wydad AC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al Ahly
Al Ahlyadvanced
10/17/2020CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Semi-finalsStade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Wydad AC50%
×Draw28%
Al Ahly23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wydad AC
1.38
Al Ahly
0.83

Wydad AC creates 66% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 45 away

creates per match

Wydad AC
2.14
Al Ahly
1.24

allows per match

Wydad AC
0.43
Al Ahly
0.62

finishing

Wydad AC+0.00on par
Al Ahly+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wydad AC ↓

Al Ahly →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Wydad AC or draw
77%
Wydad AC or Al Ahly
72%
Draw or Al Ahly
50%

Winning margin

Wydad AC wins by 2+
24%
Al Ahly wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Wydad AC 1+ goals
75%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
40%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
16%
Al Ahly 1+ goals
56%
Al Ahly 2+ goals
20%
Al Ahly 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Wydad AC (draw refunded)
69%
Al Ahly (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wydad AC at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.43 · 28 matches

Al Ahly away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.62 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wydad AC attack 2.14 + Al Ahly defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.38

Al Ahly attack 1.24 + Wydad AC defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wydad AC scores more
50%
level
28%
Al Ahly scores more
23%

Wydad AC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
Ali MaâloulAl AhlyAl Ahly · D
7.9

Match Events

19'
Aliou Dieng
21'
Yahia Attiyat allah
43'
Badie AoukMissed penalty
46'
Hamdi Fathi← Aliou Dieng
50'
Badr Gaddarine← Yahia Attiyat allah
56'
Ayman Ashraf
60'
Ibrahim Najm Eddine
63'
Cheick Comara← Brahim Nakach
63'
Zouhair El Moutaraji← Junior Gbagbo Magbi
71'
Geraldo← Marwan Mohsen
77'
Hamza Asrir← Abdelatif Noussir
77'
Kasengu Kazadi← Badie Aouk
85'
Ahmed El Sheikh← Hussein El Shahat
90'
Geraldo

Possession

47%Wydad

Shots

8Wydad

Pass accuracy

49%Wydad

Statistics

WydadAl
Overview
47%Possession53%
8Total Shots11
11Corners0
12Fouls18
Shots
8Total Shots11
2On Target3
5Off Target6
1Blocked2
6Inside Box8
2Outside Box3
Passing
47%Possession53%
354Total Passes407
267Accurate Passes316
75%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls18
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Wydad AC vs Al Ahly

Al Ahly beat Wydad AC 2-0 in CAF Champions League on October 17, 2020.

Al Ahly controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca.