Al Ahly 2–1 Wydad AC: Result & Stats

Al Ahly

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Wydad AC

Kahraba 59'

P. Tau 45+4'

S. Bouhra 86'

6/4/2023

CAF Champions League · FinalCairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Al Ahly62%

×Draw24%

Wydad AC15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al AhlyExpected goals in this matchWydad AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.68

Al Ahly

1.69

Wydad AC

0.68

Al Ahly creates 149% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 29 away

2.42

creates per match

0.83

0.53

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Al Ahly

2.42

Wydad AC

0.83

allows per match

Al Ahly

0.53

Wydad AC

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Ahly+0.00on par

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahly ↓

Wydad AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Al Ahly or draw

85%

Al Ahly or Wydad AC

76%

Draw or Wydad AC

38%

Winning margin

Al Ahly wins by 2+

35%

Wydad AC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Al Ahly 1+ goals

82%

Al Ahly 2+ goals

50%

Al Ahly 3+ goals

24%

Wydad AC 1+ goals

49%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

15%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Al Ahly (draw refunded)

81%

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahly at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.53 · 45 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahly attack 2.42 + Wydad AC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.69

Wydad AC attack 0.83 + Al Ahly defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Al Ahly scores more

62%

level

24%

Wydad AC scores more

15%

Al Ahly at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Al Ahly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Hussein El Shahat

Al Ahly · M

7.7

Match Events

31'

Ali MaâloulPenalty cancelled

42'

Ayoub El Amloud

45+4'

P. Tau↳ Hussein El Shahat

59'

Kahraba↳ Hussein El Shahat

73'

M. Ounajem← A. El Hassouni

79'

Yahia Attiyat Allah

82'

S. Bouhra← Z. El Moutaraji

86'

S. Bouhra↳ B. Sambou

87'

Ahmed Abdelkader← Hussein El Shahat

87'

Mohamed Sherif← Kahraba

90+4'

Mohamed Hany

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlWydad

Overview

65%Possession35%

12Total Shots13

5Corners2

15Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots13

6On Target4

1Off Target9

5Blocked0

6Inside Box9

6Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

504Total Passes273

431Accurate Passes202

86%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2