Wycombe 3–2 Rotherham: Result & Stats | League One

Wycombe

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Rotherham

M. Olabiyi 90'

B. Fink 25'

T. Allen 11'

J. Holmes 22', 17'

5/2/2026

League One · Round 46Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Wycombe52%

×Draw24%

Rotherham24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.04

Wycombe

1.67

Rotherham

1.04

Wycombe creates 61% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

1.94

creates per match

0.96

1.11

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Wycombe

1.94

Rotherham

0.96

allows per match

Wycombe

1.11

Rotherham

1.41

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Wycombe-0.02on par

Rotherham+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

76%

Wycombe or Rotherham

76%

Draw or Rotherham

48%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

28%

Rotherham wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

81%

Wycombe 2+ goals

50%

Wycombe 3+ goals

23%

Rotherham 1+ goals

65%

Rotherham 2+ goals

28%

Rotherham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

69%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.11 · 13 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.41 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.94 + Rotherham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.67

Rotherham attack 0.96 + Wycombe defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Wycombe scores more

52%

level

24%

Rotherham scores more

24%

Wycombe at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Holmes

Rotherham · M

8.3

Match Events

1'

Dru Yearwood

11'

T. Allen↳ J. Mullins

17'

J. Holmes↳ J. Rafferty

22'

J. Holmes↳ H. Gray

25'

B. Fink↳ A. Quitirna

45+9'

Ewan Henderson

59'

A. Morley← E. Henderson

68'

A. Vidigal← F. Onyedinma

68'

J. Matton← C. Taylor

68'

J. Benson← A. Martha

76'

Harry Gray

78'

M. Olabiyi← A. Quitirna

78'

M. Keita← T. Allen

90+3'

J. Hugill← J. Rafferty

90+4'

J. Clarke← J. Holmes

90'

M. Olabiyi↳ D. Skura

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombeRotherham

Overview

54%Possession46%

20Total Shots6

2.96Expected Goals (xG)0.71

14Corners1

14Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots6

9On Target3

3Off Target2

8Blocked1

16Inside Box2

4Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

392Total Passes344

304Accurate Passes251

78%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides4