Rotherham 1–1 Wycombe: Result & Stats | League One

Rotherham

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Wycombe

K. Spence 70'

J. Mullins 14'

11/29/2025

League One · Round 18Aesseal New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Rotherham37%

×Draw23%

Wycombe40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.69

Rotherham

1.64

Wycombe

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

1.53

creates per match

1.72

1.67

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Rotherham

1.53

Wycombe

1.72

allows per match

Rotherham

1.67

Wycombe

1.74

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

Rotherham-0.53scores less

Wycombe-0.58scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

60%

Rotherham or Wycombe

77%

Draw or Wycombe

63%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

19%

Wycombe wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

81%

Rotherham 2+ goals

49%

Rotherham 3+ goals

23%

Wycombe 1+ goals

82%

Wycombe 2+ goals

50%

Wycombe 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

49%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.67 · 10 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.74 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.53 + Wycombe defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.64

Wycombe attack 1.72 + Rotherham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rotherham scores more

37%

level

23%

Wycombe scores more

40%

Wycombe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Mullins

Wycombe · M

8.2

Match Events

12'

14'

39'

39'

61'

66'

70'

71'

71'

N. Huggins← D. Harvie

81'

Reece James

84'

S. McWilliams← J. Powell

84'

B. Fink← C. Boyd-Munce

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamWycombe

Overview

49%Possession51%

14Total Shots10

1.38Expected Goals (xG)2.20

6Corners5

10Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots10

6On Target4

5Off Target4

3Blocked2

8Inside Box8

6Outside Box2

Passing

49%Possession51%

417Total Passes447

306Accurate Passes341

73%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0

Match Recap: Rotherham vs Wycombe

Rotherham and Wycombe drew 1-1 in League One on November 29, 2025.

Goals: J. Mullins (14'), K. Spence (70').

Wycombe controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 14.

The match was played at Aesseal New York Stadium in Rotherham.

Rotherham vs Wycombe — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Rotherham vs Wycombe