Rotherham 2–3 Wycombe: Result & Stats | League One

Rotherham

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Wycombe

J. Clarke-Harris 90+5' (pen)

L. Sibley 66'

G. Kodua 90+2'

S. Bradley 90'

R. Kone 69'

3/18/2025

League One · Round 26AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Rotherham44%

×Draw25%

Wycombe31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.23

Rotherham

1.51

Wycombe

1.23

Rotherham creates 23% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 158 away

1.70

creates per match

1.26

1.21

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Rotherham

1.70

Wycombe

1.26

allows per match

Rotherham

1.21

Wycombe

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par

Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

69%

Rotherham or Wycombe

75%

Draw or Wycombe

56%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

22%

Wycombe wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

78%

Rotherham 2+ goals

44%

Rotherham 3+ goals

19%

Wycombe 1+ goals

71%

Wycombe 2+ goals

35%

Wycombe 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

59%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.21 · 96 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.32 · 158 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.70 + Wycombe defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.51

Wycombe attack 1.26 + Rotherham defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rotherham scores more

44%

level

25%

Wycombe scores more

31%

Rotherham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Leahy

Wycombe · M

8.5

Match Events

17'

52'

61'

66'

69'

R. Kone↳ L. Leahy

70'

G. McCleary← J. Scowen

70'

G. Kodua← J. Low

78'

J. Clarke-Harris← S. McWilliams

84'

J. Ogunfaolu-Kayode← M. Wilks

90+4'

S. Vokes← R. Kone

90'

S. Bradley↳ L. Leahy

90+2'

G. Kodua↳ R. Kone

90+5'

J. Clarke-HarrisPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamWycombe

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots10

5Corners3

12Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots10

3On Target5

7Off Target3

1Blocked2

9Inside Box7

2Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

414Total Passes406

316Accurate Passes307

76%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3