Wycombe 4–0 Port Vale: Result & Stats | League One

Wycombe

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Port Vale

A. Quitirna 90'

F. Onyedinma 85'

C. Taylor 69'

C. Woodrow 24'

3/28/2026

League One · Round 40Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wycombe59%

×Draw23%

Port Vale18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.86

Wycombe

1.77

Port Vale

0.86

Wycombe creates 106% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 40 away

1.96

creates per match

0.72

1.00

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Wycombe

1.96

Port Vale

0.72

allows per match

Wycombe

1.00

Port Vale

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

82%

Wycombe or Port Vale

77%

Draw or Port Vale

41%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

33%

Port Vale wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

83%

Wycombe 2+ goals

53%

Wycombe 3+ goals

26%

Port Vale 1+ goals

58%

Port Vale 2+ goals

21%

Port Vale 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

77%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.57 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.96 + Port Vale defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.77

Port Vale attack 0.72 + Wycombe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Wycombe scores more

59%

level

23%

Port Vale scores more

18%

Wycombe at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

C. Taylor

Wycombe · D

8.7

Match Events

11'

E. Campbell← J. Headley

24'

C. Woodrow

36'

Daniel Harvie

46'

R. Walters← J. Shipley

46'

A. Gray← Kyle John

63'

A. Quitirna← A. Vidigal

65'

Funso Ojo

69'

C. Taylor↳ C. Woodrow

70'

O. Hernandez← E. Archer

72'

Rhys Walters

73'

E. Henderson← N. Lowe

73'

L. Harris← C. Boyd-Munce

78'

M. Sherif← G. Hall

85'

F. Onyedinma↳ L. Harris

87'

D. Skura← N. Huggins

88'

L. Leahy← A. Morley

90'

A. Quitirna↳ J. Grimmer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombePort

Overview

52%Possession48%

21Total Shots10

2.83Expected Goals (xG)0.77

9Corners1

9Fouls11

Shots

21Total Shots10

9On Target2

6Off Target4

6Blocked4

14Inside Box4

7Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

472Total Passes431

373Accurate Passes335

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1