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Port Vale vs Wycombe — League One 2025

Port Vale
Port Vale
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Wycombe
Wycombe
E. Chislett 47'
N. Lonwijk 86'
D. Wheeler 4'
4/16/2024League OneLeague One · Round 29Vale Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Port Vale38%
×Draw28%
Wycombe34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Port Vale
1.24
Wycombe
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 27 away

creates per match

Port Vale
0.96
Wycombe
1.07

allows per match

Port Vale
1.24
Wycombe
1.52

finishing

Port Vale+0.00on par
Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Port Vale ↓

Wycombe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Port Vale or draw
66%
Port Vale or Wycombe
72%
Draw or Wycombe
62%

Winning margin

Port Vale wins by 2+
17%
Wycombe wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Port Vale 1+ goals
71%
Port Vale 2+ goals
35%
Port Vale 3+ goals
13%
Wycombe 1+ goals
69%
Wycombe 2+ goals
32%
Wycombe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Port Vale (draw refunded)
53%
Wycombe (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Port Vale at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Port Vale attack 0.96 + Wycombe defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.24

Wycombe attack 1.07 + Port Vale defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Port Vale scores more
38%
level
28%
Wycombe scores more
34%

Port Vale at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
E. ChislettPort ValePort Vale · F
8.5

Match Events

4'
D. Wheeler
35'
R. Walters← T. Sang
43'
Nigel Cello Lonwijk
47'
E. Chislett
60'
Jack Grimmer
61'
J. Weir← E. Chislett
61'
G. McCleary← K. Sadlier
69'
R. Kone← S. Vokes
69'
J. Scowen← D. Taylor
85'
Uche Ikpeazu
86'
N. Lonwijk↳ R. Kone
89'
G. Massey← U. Ikpeazu
89'
K. Łopata← A. Iacovitti
90+7'
Gavin Massey
90+5'
J. Jacobson← N. Lonwijk
90+6'
J. Low← M. Butcher

Possession

53%Port

Shots

18Port

Pass accuracy

52%Port

Statistics

PortWycombe
Overview
53%Possession47%
18Total Shots11
6Corners3
12Fouls11
Shots
18Total Shots11
4On Target4
5Off Target5
9Blocked2
10Inside Box5
8Outside Box6
Passing
53%Possession47%
385Total Passes357
252Accurate Passes217
65%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

League One: Port Vale 1–2 Wycombe

Wycombe beat Port Vale 2-1 in League One on April 16, 2024.

Goals: D. Wheeler (4'), E. Chislett (47'), N. Lonwijk (86').

Port Vale controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Vale Park in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire.