Wycombe 1–1 Port Vale: Result & Stats | League One

Wycombe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Port Vale

K. Sadlier 51'

J. Wilson 90'

12/23/2023

League One · Round 23Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Wycombe56%

×Draw24%

Port Vale20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.90

Wycombe

1.71

Port Vale

0.90

Wycombe creates 90% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 46 away

1.81

creates per match

0.72

1.07

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Wycombe

1.81

Port Vale

0.72

allows per match

Wycombe

1.07

Port Vale

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wycombe+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

80%

Wycombe or Port Vale

76%

Draw or Port Vale

44%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

31%

Port Vale wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

82%

Wycombe 2+ goals

51%

Wycombe 3+ goals

24%

Port Vale 1+ goals

59%

Port Vale 2+ goals

23%

Port Vale 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

74%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.61 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.81 + Port Vale defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.71

Port Vale attack 0.72 + Wycombe defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Wycombe scores more

56%

level

24%

Port Vale scores more

20%

Wycombe at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Ripley

Port Vale · G

7.9

Match Events

46'

C. Grant← T. Sang

51'

K. Sadlier↳ G. McCleary

57'

Nathan Smith

63'

Sam Vokes

64'

Josh Scowen

71'

D. Taylor← K. Sadlier

71'

L. Taylor← S. Vokes

72'

R. Walters← N. Smith

76'

D. Wheeler← G. McCleary

77'

83'

86'

88'

89'

89'

K. Balmer← A. Iacovitti

89'

B. Dipepa← E. Chislett

90'

J. Wilson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombePort

Overview

42%Possession58%

19Total Shots8

7Corners3

11Fouls6

Shots

19Total Shots8

6On Target2

7Off Target2

6Blocked4

11Inside Box4

8Outside Box4

Passing

42%Possession58%

321Total Passes456

188Accurate Passes310

59%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls6

6Yellow Cards1

5Offsides2