Wycombe 4–0 Doncaster: Result & Stats | League One

Wycombe

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Doncaster

J. Mullins 72'

F. Onyedinma 59'

C. Woodrow 47'

A. Morley 13'

2/7/2026

League One · Round 31Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Wycombe46%

×Draw22%

Doncaster32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.60

Wycombe

1.93

Doncaster

1.60

Wycombe creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

2.18

creates per match

2.05

1.16

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Wycombe

2.18

Doncaster

2.05

allows per match

Wycombe

1.16

Doncaster

1.67

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.85scores less than expected

finishing

Wycombe-0.01on par

Doncaster-0.85scores less

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

68%

Wycombe or Doncaster

78%

Draw or Doncaster

54%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

25%

Doncaster wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

85%

Wycombe 2+ goals

57%

Wycombe 3+ goals

30%

Doncaster 1+ goals

80%

Doncaster 2+ goals

47%

Doncaster 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

58%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.16 · 6 matches

Doncaster away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.67 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 2.18 + Doncaster defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.93

Doncaster attack 2.05 + Wycombe defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wycombe scores more

46%

level

22%

Doncaster scores more

32%

Wycombe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45

A. Hagelskjaer

Wycombe · D

8.0

Match Events

13'

A. Morley↳ D. Harvie

17'

Caolan Boyd-Munce

36'

L. Leahy← C. Boyd-Munce

47'

C. Woodrow

48'

Jay McGrath

56'

B. Sharp← H. Clifton

56'

G. Middleton← H. Adelakun

59'

F. Onyedinma

64'

J. Mullins← A. Morley

64'

E. Henderson← L. Harris

64'

A. Vidigal← A. Quitirna

68'

J. Gibson← E. Lee

69'

T. Nixon← J. Sterry

72'

J. Mullins↳ C. Woodrow

73'

B. Fink← C. Woodrow

78'

G. Broadbent← R. Gotts

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombeDoncaster

Overview

55%Possession45%

22Total Shots5

3.22Expected Goals (xG)0.26

8Corners1

14Fouls11

Shots

22Total Shots5

9On Target1

10Off Target3

3Blocked2

15Inside Box3

7Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

439Total Passes374

326Accurate Passes263

74%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides5