Doncaster 3–1 Wycombe: Result & Stats | League One

Doncaster

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Wycombe

J. McCarthy 83' (OG)

K. Sadlier 71'

N. Ennis 45'

A. Akinfenwa 67'

2/29/2020

League One · Round 36The Keepmoat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Doncaster34%

×Draw26%

Wycombe40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoncasterExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.38

Doncaster

1.25

Wycombe

1.38

Wycombe creates 10% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 97 away

1.25

creates per match

1.30

1.45

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Doncaster

1.25

Wycombe

1.30

allows per match

Doncaster

1.45

Wycombe

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par

Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw

60%

Doncaster or Wycombe

74%

Draw or Wycombe

66%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+

15%

Wycombe wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals

71%

Doncaster 2+ goals

36%

Doncaster 3+ goals

13%

Wycombe 1+ goals

75%

Wycombe 2+ goals

40%

Wycombe 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)

46%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.26 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.25 + Wycombe defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Wycombe attack 1.30 + Doncaster defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Doncaster scores more

34%

level

26%

Wycombe scores more

40%

Wycombe at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

N. Ennis

Doncaster · M

7.6

Match Events

13'

Kieran Sadlier

20'

Curtis Thompson

45'

N. Ennis↳ Madger Antonio

57'

A. Akinfenwa← A. Samuel

62'

Tom Anderson

67'

A. Akinfenwa

71'

K. Sadlier↳ B. Whiteman

73'

J. Eyenga-Lokilo← N. Ennis

75'

N. Freeman← F. Onyedinma

81'

M. Blair← Madger Antonio

83'

J. Parker← P. Smyth

83'

J. McCarthyOwn goal

86'

B. Sheaf← J. Ramsey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DoncasterWycombe

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots9

3Corners7

12Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots9

3On Target3

4Off Target2

5Blocked4

7Inside Box8

5Outside Box1

Passing

55%Possession45%

381Total Passes295

262Accurate Passes170

69%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1