Doncaster 1–1 Wycombe: Result & Stats | League One

Doncaster

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wycombe

B. Sharp 56'

A. Quitirna 71'

8/16/2025

League One · Round 3Eco-Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Doncaster38%

×Draw27%

Wycombe35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoncasterExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.25

Doncaster

1.32

Wycombe

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 32 away

1.21

creates per match

1.06

1.44

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Doncaster

1.21

Wycombe

1.06

allows per match

Doncaster

1.44

Wycombe

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par

Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw

65%

Doncaster or Wycombe

73%

Draw or Wycombe

62%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+

17%

Wycombe wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals

73%

Doncaster 2+ goals

38%

Doncaster 3+ goals

15%

Wycombe 1+ goals

71%

Wycombe 2+ goals

36%

Wycombe 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)

52%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.21 + Wycombe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.32

Wycombe attack 1.06 + Doncaster defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Doncaster scores more

38%

level

27%

Wycombe scores more

35%

Doncaster at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Leahy

Wycombe · M

7.9

Match Events

30'

Jamie Mullins

56'

B. Sharp

59'

G. Abbott← A. Lowry

60'

A. Quitirna← J. Tilley

60'

F. Onyedinma← C. Boyd-Munce

64'

H. Clifton← R. Gotts

64'

G. Middleton← J. Gibson

71'

A. Quitirna

75'

Connor O'Riordan

77'

B. Hanlan← B. Sharp

77'

D. Ajayi← C. Crew

82'

84'

90+2'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DoncasterWycombe

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots8

6Corners3

13Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots8

1On Target3

3Off Target2

6Blocked3

4Inside Box2

6Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

324Total Passes401

234Accurate Passes308

72%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides7