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Wycombe vs Doncaster — League One 2018

Wycombe
Wycombe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Doncaster
Doncaster
11/23/2019League OneLeague One · Round 19Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Wycombe44%
×Draw23%
Doncaster33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wycombe
1.83
Doncaster
1.55

Wycombe creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

creates per match

Wycombe
2.18
Doncaster
1.95

allows per match

Wycombe
1.16
Doncaster
1.47

finishing

Wycombe-0.01on par
Doncaster-0.80scores less

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Doncaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw
67%
Wycombe or Doncaster
77%
Draw or Doncaster
56%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+
24%
Doncaster wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals
84%
Wycombe 2+ goals
54%
Wycombe 3+ goals
28%
Doncaster 1+ goals
79%
Doncaster 2+ goals
46%
Doncaster 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)
57%
Doncaster (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.16 · 6 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.47 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 2.18 + Doncaster defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.83

Doncaster attack 1.95 + Wycombe defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wycombe scores more
44%
level
23%
Doncaster scores more
33%

Wycombe at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Wycombe 1–0 Doncaster

Wycombe beat Doncaster 1-0 in League One on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Adams Park in High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire.