Wycombe 1–2 Bradford: Result & Stats | League One

Wycombe

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Bradford

A. Vidigal 6'

A. Baldwin 68'

B. Pointon 52'

4/6/2026

League One · Round 42Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Wycombe49%

×Draw25%

Bradford27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchBradford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.14

Wycombe

1.63

Bradford

1.14

Wycombe creates 43% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.91

creates per match

1.07

1.21

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Wycombe

1.91

Bradford

1.07

allows per match

Wycombe

1.21

Bradford

1.34

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Wycombe-0.01on par

Bradford-0.07on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Bradford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

73%

Wycombe or Bradford

75%

Draw or Bradford

51%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

26%

Bradford wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

80%

Wycombe 2+ goals

48%

Wycombe 3+ goals

22%

Bradford 1+ goals

68%

Bradford 2+ goals

32%

Bradford 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

65%

Bradford (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.21 · 10 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.91 + Bradford defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.63

Bradford attack 1.07 + Wycombe defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wycombe scores more

49%

level

25%

Bradford scores more

27%

Wycombe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

A. Baldwin

Bradford · D

8.0

Match Events

6'

A. Vidigal

36'

Ibou Touray

46'

E. Henderson← C. Boyd-Munce

46'

J. Metcalfe← L. Evans

52'

B. Pointon

60'

N. Lowe← A. Quitirna

66'

Daniel Harvie

67'

N. Powell← A. Sarcevic

67'

K. Jackson← S. Humphrys

68'

A. Baldwin

70'

J. Mullins← A. Vidigal

76'

80'

86'

90+6'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WycombeBradford

Overview

63%Possession37%

10Total Shots7

1.57Expected Goals (xG)1.74

2Corners4

12Fouls16

Shots

10Total Shots7

3On Target3

3Off Target2

4Blocked2

7Inside Box7

3Outside Box0

Passing

63%Possession37%

544Total Passes319

420Accurate Passes203

77%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4

0Offsides4