Bradford 0–1 Wycombe: Result & Stats | League #46

Bradford

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wycombe

M. Butcher 90+1'

2/21/2024

League #46 · Semi-finalsUniversity of Bradford Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bradford52%

×Draw25%

Wycombe23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BradfordExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.00

Bradford

1.63

Wycombe

1.00

Bradford creates 63% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Bradford

2.00

Wycombe

1.00

allows per match

Bradford

1.00

Wycombe

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bradford+0.00on par

Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bradford or draw

77%

Bradford or Wycombe

75%

Draw or Wycombe

48%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+

28%

Wycombe wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals

80%

Bradford 2+ goals

48%

Bradford 3+ goals

22%

Wycombe 1+ goals

63%

Wycombe 2+ goals

26%

Wycombe 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)

69%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Wycombe away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 2.00 + Wycombe defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Wycombe attack 1.00 + Bradford defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bradford scores more

52%

level

25%

Wycombe scores more

23%

Bradford at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Stryjek

Wycombe · G

9.2

Match Events

48'

L. Ridehalgh← C. Kelly

55'

K. Vincent-Young← D. Wheeler

56'

R. Kone← S. Vokes

65'

M. Butcher← J. Scowen

67'

Joe Low

75'

T. Wright← T. Smith

85'

Luke Leahy

85'

N. Lonwijk← D. Taylor

90+5'

Kevin McDonald

90+4'

B. Pointon← R. Smallwood

90+4'

H. Chapman← J. Tomkinson

90+1'

M. Butcher↳ R. Kone

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BradfordWycombe

Overview

60%Possession40%

19Total Shots9

10Corners3

6Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots9

7On Target2

8Off Target1

4Blocked6

12Inside Box5

7Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

444Total Passes307

303Accurate Passes179

68%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

6Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2