Wycombe 0–0 Bradford: Result & Stats | League One

Wycombe

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bradford

2/2/2019

League One · Round 31Adams Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Wycombe50%

×Draw25%

Bradford26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WycombeExpected goals in this matchBradford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.10

Wycombe

1.63

Bradford

1.10

Wycombe creates 48% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.94

creates per match

1.09

1.11

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Wycombe

1.94

Bradford

1.09

allows per match

Wycombe

1.11

Bradford

1.31

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Wycombe-0.02on par

Bradford-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wycombe ↓

Bradford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Wycombe or draw

74%

Wycombe or Bradford

75%

Draw or Bradford

50%

Winning margin

Wycombe wins by 2+

26%

Bradford wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wycombe 1+ goals

80%

Wycombe 2+ goals

48%

Wycombe 3+ goals

22%

Bradford 1+ goals

67%

Bradford 2+ goals

30%

Bradford 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Wycombe (draw refunded)

66%

Bradford (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wycombe at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.11 · 13 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wycombe attack 1.94 + Bradford defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.63

Bradford attack 1.09 + Wycombe defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wycombe scores more

50%

level

25%

Bradford scores more

26%

Wycombe at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wycombe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

S. Kashket← A. Samuel

71'

P. Cowan-Hall← L. Bolton

75'

G. Miller← E. Doyle

79'

J. Butterfield← David Ball

84'

Adam El-Abd

85'

M. Bean← M. Bloomfield

88'

B. Clarke← J. Payne

89'

Nathan Tyson

Wycombe

Bradford

1

38

3

6

23

22

21

10

▼

Payne

39

O'Brien

9

▼

Doyle

40

▼

1

2

6

3

26

10

▼

18

4

23

25

▼

Samuel

17

▼

Bolton

Manager: G. Ainsworth

35'▲S. Kashket←▼A. Samuel

71'▲P. Cowan-Hall←▼L. Bolton

85'▲M. Bean←▼M. Bloomfield

Wycombe substitutes

11Kashket12Cowan-Hall8Bean13Yates16Harriman5Stewart15Owens

Manager: D. Hopkin

75'▲G. Miller←▼E. Doyle

79'▲J. Butterfield←▼David Ball

88'▲B. Clarke←▼J. Payne

Bradford substitutes

12Miller16Butterfield17Clarke24Devine13Wilson18Anderson36Colville