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Würzburger Kickers vs Nürnberg II — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Würzburger Kickers
Würzburger Kickers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nürnberg II
Nürnberg II
9/13/2025Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 4Flyeralarm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Würzburger Kickers57%
×Draw21%
Nürnberg II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Würzburger Kickers
2.10
Nürnberg II
1.25

Würzburger Kickers creates 68% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 85 away

creates per match

Würzburger Kickers
2.76
Nürnberg II
1.74

allows per match

Würzburger Kickers
0.76
Nürnberg II
1.45

finishing

Würzburger Kickers+0.00on par
Nürnberg II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Würzburger Kickers ↓

Nürnberg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Würzburger Kickers or draw
78%
Würzburger Kickers or Nürnberg II
79%
Draw or Nürnberg II
43%

Winning margin

Würzburger Kickers wins by 2+
34%
Nürnberg II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Würzburger Kickers 1+ goals
88%
Würzburger Kickers 2+ goals
62%
Würzburger Kickers 3+ goals
35%
Nürnberg II 1+ goals
71%
Nürnberg II 2+ goals
36%
Nürnberg II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Würzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
72%
Nürnberg II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Würzburger Kickers at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

Nürnberg II away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.45 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Würzburger Kickers attack 2.76 + Nürnberg II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 2.10

Nürnberg II attack 1.74 + Würzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Würzburger Kickers scores more
57%
level
21%
Nürnberg II scores more
22%

Würzburger Kickers at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Würzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Würzburger Kickers vs Nürnberg II

Würzburger Kickers and Nürnberg II drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Flyeralarm Arena in Wurzburger.