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Nürnberg II vs FC Wurzburger Kickers — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Nürnberg II
Nürnberg II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
4/27/2024Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 31Max-Morlock-Platz im Sportpark Valznerweiher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Nürnberg II35%
×Draw23%
FC Wurzburger Kickers42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nürnberg II
1.51
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.67

FC Wurzburger Kickers creates 11% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 54 away

creates per match

Nürnberg II
2.26
FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.11

allows per match

Nürnberg II
1.24
FC Wurzburger Kickers
0.76

finishing

Nürnberg II+0.00on par
FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nürnberg II ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Nürnberg II or draw
58%
Nürnberg II or FC Wurzburger Kickers
77%
Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers
65%

Winning margin

Nürnberg II wins by 2+
16%
FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Nürnberg II 1+ goals
78%
Nürnberg II 2+ goals
44%
Nürnberg II 3+ goals
19%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
81%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
50%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Nürnberg II (draw refunded)
46%
FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nürnberg II at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nürnberg II attack 2.26 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.51

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 2.11 + Nürnberg II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nürnberg II scores more
35%
level
23%
FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
42%

FC Wurzburger Kickers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nürnberg II 1 – 0 FC Wurzburger Kickers

Nürnberg II beat FC Wurzburger Kickers 1-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Max-Morlock-Platz im Sportpark Valznerweiher in Nürnberg.