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FC Wurzburger Kickers vs Nürnberg II — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Nürnberg II
Nürnberg II
10/7/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 14AKON ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers56%
×Draw21%
Nürnberg II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.10
Nürnberg II
1.26

FC Wurzburger Kickers creates 67% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 86 away

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
2.76
Nürnberg II
1.76

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers
0.76
Nürnberg II
1.44

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par
Nürnberg II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

Nürnberg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw
77%
FC Wurzburger Kickers or Nürnberg II
79%
Draw or Nürnberg II
44%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
34%
Nürnberg II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
88%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
62%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
35%
Nürnberg II 1+ goals
72%
Nürnberg II 2+ goals
36%
Nürnberg II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
71%
Nürnberg II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

Nürnberg II away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 2.76 + Nürnberg II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.10

Nürnberg II attack 1.76 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
56%
level
21%
Nürnberg II scores more
23%

FC Wurzburger Kickers at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: FC Wurzburger Kickers 3–1 Nürnberg II

FC Wurzburger Kickers beat Nürnberg II 3-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at AKON ARENA in Würzburg.