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Würzburger Kickers vs Hankofen-Hailing — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Würzburger Kickers
Würzburger Kickers
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hankofen-Hailing
Hankofen-Hailing
4/2/2026Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 26Flyeralarm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Würzburger Kickers75%
×Draw15%
Hankofen-Hailing10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Würzburger Kickers
2.58
Hankofen-Hailing
0.82

Würzburger Kickers creates 215% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 37 away

creates per match

Würzburger Kickers
2.76
Hankofen-Hailing
0.89

allows per match

Würzburger Kickers
0.76
Hankofen-Hailing
2.41

finishing

Würzburger Kickers+0.00on par
Hankofen-Hailing+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Würzburger Kickers ↓

Hankofen-Hailing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Würzburger Kickers or draw
90%
Würzburger Kickers or Hankofen-Hailing
85%
Draw or Hankofen-Hailing
25%

Winning margin

Würzburger Kickers wins by 2+
53%
Hankofen-Hailing wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Würzburger Kickers 1+ goals
92%
Würzburger Kickers 2+ goals
72%
Würzburger Kickers 3+ goals
47%
Hankofen-Hailing 1+ goals
56%
Hankofen-Hailing 2+ goals
20%
Hankofen-Hailing 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Würzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
88%
Hankofen-Hailing (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Würzburger Kickers at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

Hankofen-Hailing away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.41 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Würzburger Kickers attack 2.76 + Hankofen-Hailing defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.58

Hankofen-Hailing attack 0.89 + Würzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Würzburger Kickers scores more
75%
level
15%
Hankofen-Hailing scores more
10%

Würzburger Kickers at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Würzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Würzburger Kickers 5–0 Hankofen-Hailing

Würzburger Kickers beat Hankofen-Hailing 5-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on April 2, 2026.

The match was played at Flyeralarm Arena in Wurzburger.