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Hankofen-Hailing vs Würzburger Kickers — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Hankofen-Hailing
Hankofen-Hailing
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Würzburger Kickers
Würzburger Kickers
9/19/2025Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 9Maierhofer Bau - Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hankofen-Hailing17%
×Draw20%
Würzburger Kickers63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hankofen-Hailing
1.00
Würzburger Kickers
2.13

Würzburger Kickers creates 113% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 54 away

creates per match

Hankofen-Hailing
1.24
Würzburger Kickers
2.11

allows per match

Hankofen-Hailing
2.14
Würzburger Kickers
0.76

finishing

Hankofen-Hailing+0.00on par
Würzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hankofen-Hailing ↓

Würzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hankofen-Hailing or draw
37%
Hankofen-Hailing or Würzburger Kickers
80%
Draw or Würzburger Kickers
83%

Winning margin

Hankofen-Hailing wins by 2+
6%
Würzburger Kickers wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Hankofen-Hailing 1+ goals
63%
Hankofen-Hailing 2+ goals
26%
Hankofen-Hailing 3+ goals
8%
Würzburger Kickers 1+ goals
88%
Würzburger Kickers 2+ goals
63%
Würzburger Kickers 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Hankofen-Hailing (draw refunded)
21%
Würzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hankofen-Hailing at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.14 · 37 matches

Würzburger Kickers away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hankofen-Hailing attack 1.24 + Würzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.00

Würzburger Kickers attack 2.11 + Hankofen-Hailing defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Hankofen-Hailing scores more
17%
level
20%
Würzburger Kickers scores more
63%

Würzburger Kickers at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Würzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hankofen-Hailing vs Würzburger Kickers

Würzburger Kickers beat Hankofen-Hailing 3-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on September 19, 2025.

The match was played at Maierhofer Bau - Stadion in Leiblfing.