Hankofen-Hailing 1–5 FC Wurzburger Kickers

Hankofen-Hailing

FT

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

FC Wurzburger Kickers

11/5/2022

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 20Maierhofer Bau - Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hankofen-Hailing17%

×Draw20%

FC Wurzburger Kickers63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hankofen-HailingExpected goals in this matchFC Wurzburger Kickers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.13

Hankofen-Hailing

1.00

FC Wurzburger Kickers

2.13

FC Wurzburger Kickers creates 113% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 54 away

1.24

creates per match

2.11

2.14

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Hankofen-Hailing

1.24

FC Wurzburger Kickers

2.11

allows per match

Hankofen-Hailing

2.14

FC Wurzburger Kickers

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hankofen-Hailing+0.00on par

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hankofen-Hailing ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Hankofen-Hailing or draw

37%

Hankofen-Hailing or FC Wurzburger Kickers

80%

Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers

83%

Winning margin

Hankofen-Hailing wins by 2+

6%

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Hankofen-Hailing 1+ goals

63%

Hankofen-Hailing 2+ goals

26%

Hankofen-Hailing 3+ goals

8%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals

88%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals

63%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Hankofen-Hailing (draw refunded)

21%

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hankofen-Hailing at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.14 · 37 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hankofen-Hailing attack 1.24 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.00

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 2.11 + Hankofen-Hailing defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Hankofen-Hailing scores more

17%

level

20%

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more

63%

FC Wurzburger Kickers at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff