Wuppertaler SV U19 0–2 RW Oberhausen U19

Wuppertaler SV U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

RW Oberhausen U19

T. Kurt 19', 16'

9/18/2016

U19 Bundesliga · West - 6Bezirkssportanlage Uellendahl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Wuppertaler SV U1936%

×Draw23%

RW Oberhausen U1941%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuppertaler SV U19Expected goals in this matchRW Oberhausen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.75

Wuppertaler SV U19

1.61

RW Oberhausen U19

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 52 away

1.15

creates per match

1.21

2.30

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Wuppertaler SV U19

1.15

RW Oberhausen U19

1.21

allows per match

Wuppertaler SV U19

2.30

RW Oberhausen U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wuppertaler SV U19+0.00on par

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuppertaler SV U19 ↓

RW Oberhausen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Wuppertaler SV U19 or draw

59%

Wuppertaler SV U19 or RW Oberhausen U19

77%

Draw or RW Oberhausen U19

64%

Winning margin

Wuppertaler SV U19 wins by 2+

17%

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Wuppertaler SV U19 1+ goals

80%

Wuppertaler SV U19 2+ goals

48%

Wuppertaler SV U19 3+ goals

22%

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

83%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

52%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Wuppertaler SV U19 (draw refunded)

46%

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuppertaler SV U19 at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.30 · 33 matches

RW Oberhausen U19 away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.08 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuppertaler SV U19 attack 1.15 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.61

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.21 + Wuppertaler SV U19 defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wuppertaler SV U19 scores more

36%

level

23%

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

41%

RW Oberhausen U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "RW Oberhausen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

T. Kurt

19'

T. Kurt

46'

O. Serdar← J. Lohmann

46'

Y. Alabas← T. Zupo

46'

D. Mustajbasic← J. Schulte

58'

O. Yilmaz← G. Pöschl

63'

O. Dings← Ç. Orhan

67'

L. Kryeziu← P. Wagner

75'

I. Nadir← T. Kurt

83'

Sopita← C. Führich

Wuppertaler

RW

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Brinkmann

46'▲O. Serdar←▼J. Lohmann

46'▲Y. Alabas←▼T. Zupo

46'▲D. Mustajbasic←▼J. Schulte

67'▲L. Kryeziu←▼P. Wagner

Wuppertaler SV U19 substitutes

SerdarAlabasMustajbasicKryeziuAurelioBogoiuHorn

Manager: M. Tullberg

58'▲O. Yilmaz←▼G. Pöschl

63'▲O. Dings←▼Ç. Orhan

75'▲I. Nadir←▼T. Kurt

83'▲Sopita←▼C. Führich

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

YilmazDingsNadirSopitaDoganSchumacherCantürk

U19 Bundesliga: Wuppertaler SV U19 0–2 RW Oberhausen U19

RW Oberhausen U19 beat Wuppertaler SV U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on September 18, 2016.

Goals: T. Kurt (16', 19').

The match was played at Bezirkssportanlage Uellendahl in Wuppertal.

Wuppertaler SV U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Wuppertaler SV U19 0–2 RW Oberhausen U19