RW Oberhausen U19 2–2 Wuppertaler SV U19

RW Oberhausen U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Wuppertaler SV U19

C. Führich 74'

I. Nadir 50'

B. Muharremi 35'

T. Zupo 30'

2/26/2017

U19 Bundesliga · West - 19Nebenplatz Stadion Niederrhein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

RW Oberhausen U1957%

×Draw21%

Wuppertaler SV U1922%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RW Oberhausen U19Expected goals in this matchWuppertaler SV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.22

RW Oberhausen U19

2.10

Wuppertaler SV U19

1.22

RW Oberhausen U19 creates 72% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 34 away

1.65

creates per match

0.82

1.63

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.65

Wuppertaler SV U19

0.82

allows per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.63

Wuppertaler SV U19

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Wuppertaler SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RW Oberhausen U19 ↓

Wuppertaler SV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

RW Oberhausen U19 or draw

78%

RW Oberhausen U19 or Wuppertaler SV U19

79%

Draw or Wuppertaler SV U19

43%

Winning margin

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

35%

Wuppertaler SV U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

88%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

62%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

35%

Wuppertaler SV U19 1+ goals

70%

Wuppertaler SV U19 2+ goals

34%

Wuppertaler SV U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Wuppertaler SV U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RW Oberhausen U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.63 · 54 matches

Wuppertaler SV U19 away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.65 + Wuppertaler SV U19 defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.10

Wuppertaler SV U19 attack 0.82 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

57%

level

21%

Wuppertaler SV U19 scores more

22%

RW Oberhausen U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "RW Oberhausen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

35'

46'

46'

50'

62'

D. Oberlies← A. Ziege

68'

F. Benz← T. Zupo

70'

M. Bogoiu← T. Baydemir

74'

C. Führich

85'

O. Yilmaz← J. Helfer

RW

Wuppertaler

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: M. Tullberg

46'▲O. Cantürk←▼Ç. Orhan

46'▲O. Dings←▼M. Bimpek

85'▲O. Yilmaz←▼J. Helfer

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

CantürkDingsYilmazKöppenKrupkaPakowskiSchumacher

Manager: D. Brinkmann

62'▲D. Oberlies←▼A. Ziege

68'▲F. Benz←▼T. Zupo

70'▲M. Bogoiu←▼T. Baydemir

Wuppertaler SV U19 substitutes

OberliesBenzBogoiuPavlidisLohmannSerdarZecevic

Match Recap: RW Oberhausen U19 vs Wuppertaler SV U19

RW Oberhausen U19 and Wuppertaler SV U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on February 26, 2017.

Goals: T. Zupo (30'), B. Muharremi (35'), I. Nadir (50'), C. Führich (74').

The match was played at Nebenplatz Stadion Niederrhein in Oberhausen.

RW Oberhausen U19 vs Wuppertaler SV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: RW Oberhausen U19 vs Wuppertaler SV U19