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Wuppertaler SV U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Wuppertaler SV U19
Wuppertaler SV U19
CANC
10:00
RW Oberhausen U19
RW Oberhausen U19
1/31/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 10Bezirkssportanlage Uellendahl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Wuppertaler SV U1934%
×Draw22%
RW Oberhausen U1944%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuppertaler SV U19
1.67
RW Oberhausen U19
1.90

RW Oberhausen U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 48 away

creates per match

Wuppertaler SV U19
1.18
RW Oberhausen U19
1.21

allows per match

Wuppertaler SV U19
2.58
RW Oberhausen U19
2.15

finishing

Wuppertaler SV U19+0.00on par
RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuppertaler SV U19 ↓

RW Oberhausen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Wuppertaler SV U19 or draw
56%
Wuppertaler SV U19 or RW Oberhausen U19
78%
Draw or RW Oberhausen U19
66%

Winning margin

Wuppertaler SV U19 wins by 2+
17%
RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Wuppertaler SV U19 1+ goals
81%
Wuppertaler SV U19 2+ goals
50%
Wuppertaler SV U19 3+ goals
23%
RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals
85%
RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals
56%
RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Wuppertaler SV U19 (draw refunded)
44%
RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuppertaler SV U19 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.58 · 33 matches

RW Oberhausen U19 away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.15 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuppertaler SV U19 attack 1.18 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.67

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.21 + Wuppertaler SV U19 defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wuppertaler SV U19 scores more
34%
level
22%
RW Oberhausen U19 scores more
44%

RW Oberhausen U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "RW Oberhausen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Wuppertaler SV U19 host RW Oberhausen U19

January 31, 2021: Wuppertaler SV U19 take on RW Oberhausen U19 in U19 Bundesliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Wuppertaler SV U19 host RW Oberhausen U19 at Bezirkssportanlage Uellendahl.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.