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RW Oberhausen U19 vs Wuppertaler SV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

RW Oberhausen U19
RW Oberhausen U19
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wuppertaler SV U19
Wuppertaler SV U19
11/9/2019U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Ovest - 11Stadion Niederrhein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

RW Oberhausen U1958%
×Draw21%
Wuppertaler SV U1921%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RW Oberhausen U19
2.15
Wuppertaler SV U19
1.23

RW Oberhausen U19 creates 75% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 33 away

creates per match

RW Oberhausen U19
1.62
Wuppertaler SV U19
0.79

allows per match

RW Oberhausen U19
1.66
Wuppertaler SV U19
2.67

finishing

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par
Wuppertaler SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RW Oberhausen U19 ↓

Wuppertaler SV U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

RW Oberhausen U19 or draw
79%
RW Oberhausen U19 or Wuppertaler SV U19
79%
Draw or Wuppertaler SV U19
42%

Winning margin

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+
36%
Wuppertaler SV U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals
88%
RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals
63%
RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals
36%
Wuppertaler SV U19 1+ goals
71%
Wuppertaler SV U19 2+ goals
35%
Wuppertaler SV U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)
73%
Wuppertaler SV U19 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RW Oberhausen U19 at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.66 · 50 matches

Wuppertaler SV U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.67 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.62 + Wuppertaler SV U19 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.15

Wuppertaler SV U19 attack 0.79 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more
58%
level
21%
Wuppertaler SV U19 scores more
21%

RW Oberhausen U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "RW Oberhausen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RW Oberhausen U19 vs Wuppertaler SV U19

RW Oberhausen U19 and Wuppertaler SV U19 drew 0-0 in U19 Bundesliga on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Niederrhein in Oberhausen.