Wuppertaler SV U19 2–0 Rot-Weiss Essen U19

Wuppertaler SV U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

J. Schulte 90+4'

A. Pavlidis 75'

8/21/2016

U19 Bundesliga · West - 3Bezirkssportanlage Uellendahl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Wuppertaler SV U1942%

×Draw23%

Rot-Weiss Essen U1935%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuppertaler SV U19Expected goals in this matchRot-Weiss Essen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.63

Wuppertaler SV U19

1.79

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.63

Wuppertaler SV U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 54 away

1.15

creates per match

0.96

2.30

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Wuppertaler SV U19

1.15

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

0.96

allows per match

Wuppertaler SV U19

2.30

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wuppertaler SV U19+0.00on par

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuppertaler SV U19 ↓

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Wuppertaler SV U19 or draw

65%

Wuppertaler SV U19 or Rot-Weiss Essen U19

77%

Draw or Rot-Weiss Essen U19

58%

Winning margin

Wuppertaler SV U19 wins by 2+

22%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Wuppertaler SV U19 1+ goals

83%

Wuppertaler SV U19 2+ goals

53%

Wuppertaler SV U19 3+ goals

26%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals

80%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals

48%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Wuppertaler SV U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuppertaler SV U19 at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.30 · 33 matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.43 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuppertaler SV U19 attack 1.15 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.79

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 0.96 + Wuppertaler SV U19 defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wuppertaler SV U19 scores more

42%

level

23%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more

35%

Wuppertaler SV U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wuppertaler SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

S. Skuppin← B. Ekinjier

64'

A. Pavlidis← Y. Alabas

70'

75'

77'

83'

90+4'

Wuppertaler

Rot-Weiss

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Brinkmann

64'▲A. Pavlidis←▼Y. Alabas

70'▲J. Schulte←▼S. Hušić

83'▲G. Aurelio←▼T. Zupo

Wuppertaler SV U19 substitutes

PavlidisSchulteAurelioZimmermannKryeziuSchaumburgSerdar

Manager: D. Apfeld

46'▲S. Skuppin←▼B. Ekinjier

77'▲N. Köhler←▼S. Neuse

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 substitutes

SkuppinKöhlerRemmoScherrBasarRadojewski