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Rot-Weiss Essen U19 vs Wuppertaler SV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Rot-Weiss Essen U19
Rot-Weiss Essen U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Wuppertaler SV U19
Wuppertaler SV U19
4/23/2022U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 16Sportpark Am Hallo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U1963%
×Draw19%
Wuppertaler SV U1918%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19
2.34
Wuppertaler SV U19
1.16

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 creates 102% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 33 away

creates per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19
2.02
Wuppertaler SV U19
0.79

allows per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19
1.53
Wuppertaler SV U19
2.67

finishing

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par
Wuppertaler SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 ↓

Wuppertaler SV U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or draw
82%
Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or Wuppertaler SV U19
81%
Draw or Wuppertaler SV U19
37%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+
41%
Wuppertaler SV U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals
90%
Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals
67%
Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals
41%
Wuppertaler SV U19 1+ goals
69%
Wuppertaler SV U19 2+ goals
32%
Wuppertaler SV U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)
78%
Wuppertaler SV U19 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

Wuppertaler SV U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.67 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 2.02 + Wuppertaler SV U19 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.34

Wuppertaler SV U19 attack 0.79 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more
63%
level
19%
Wuppertaler SV U19 scores more
18%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Rot-Weiss Essen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rot-Weiss Essen U19 vs Wuppertaler SV U19

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 beat Wuppertaler SV U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Am Hallo in Essen.