Rot-Weiss Essen U19 0–0 Wuppertaler SV U19

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wuppertaler SV U19

2/5/2017

U19 Bundesliga · West - 16Sportpark Am Hallo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rot-Weiss Essen U1961%

×Draw20%

Wuppertaler SV U1919%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19Expected goals in this matchWuppertaler SV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.20

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

2.26

Wuppertaler SV U19

1.20

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 34 away

1.96

creates per match

0.82

1.58

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.96

Wuppertaler SV U19

0.82

allows per match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

1.58

Wuppertaler SV U19

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiss Essen U19+0.00on par

Wuppertaler SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 ↓

Wuppertaler SV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or draw

81%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 or Wuppertaler SV U19

80%

Draw or Wuppertaler SV U19

39%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 wins by 2+

39%

Wuppertaler SV U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1+ goals

89%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 2+ goals

66%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 3+ goals

39%

Wuppertaler SV U19 1+ goals

70%

Wuppertaler SV U19 2+ goals

34%

Wuppertaler SV U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Wuppertaler SV U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 55 matches

Wuppertaler SV U19 away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 attack 1.96 + Wuppertaler SV U19 defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.26

Wuppertaler SV U19 attack 0.82 + Rot-Weiss Essen U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 scores more

61%

level

20%

Wuppertaler SV U19 scores more

19%

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Rot-Weiss Essen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'

T. Krasnici← J. Ceka

79'

P. Janicki← A. Pavlidis

79'

P. Wagner← S. Topsu

82'

O. Can← E. Keskin

Rot-Weiss

Wuppertaler

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Apfeld

75'▲T. Krasnici←▼J. Ceka

82'▲O. Can←▼E. Keskin

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 substitutes

KrasniciCanMatondoRudolfMöllerKöhlerRadojewski

Manager: D. Brinkmann

79'▲P. Janicki←▼A. Pavlidis

79'▲P. Wagner←▼S. Topsu

Wuppertaler SV U19 substitutes

JanickiWagnerBenzLohmannSchulteHornSerdar

U19 Bundesliga: Rot-Weiss Essen U19 0–0 Wuppertaler SV U19

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 and Wuppertaler SV U19 drew 0-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 5, 2017.

The match was played at Sportpark Am Hallo in Essen.

Rot-Weiss Essen U19 vs Wuppertaler SV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Rot-Weiss Essen U19 0–0 Wuppertaler SV U19