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Wuhan Zall vs Meizhou Kejia — Super League 2018

Wuhan Zall
Wuhan Zall
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
11/4/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23Dongxihu Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Wuhan Zall48%
×Draw25%
Meizhou Kejia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Zall
1.62
Meizhou Kejia
1.17

Wuhan Zall creates 38% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 62 away

creates per match

Wuhan Zall
1.24
Meizhou Kejia
0.94

allows per match

Wuhan Zall
1.39
Meizhou Kejia
2.00

finishing

Wuhan Zall+0.00on par
Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Zall ↓

Meizhou Kejia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Wuhan Zall or draw
72%
Wuhan Zall or Meizhou Kejia
75%
Draw or Meizhou Kejia
52%

Winning margin

Wuhan Zall wins by 2+
25%
Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wuhan Zall 1+ goals
80%
Wuhan Zall 2+ goals
48%
Wuhan Zall 3+ goals
22%
Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
69%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
33%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)
63%
Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Zall at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.39 · 54 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Zall attack 1.24 + Meizhou Kejia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.62

Meizhou Kejia attack 0.94 + Wuhan Zall defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wuhan Zall scores more
48%
level
25%
Meizhou Kejia scores more
28%

Wuhan Zall at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wuhan Zall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wuhan Zall vs Meizhou Kejia

Wuhan Zall and Meizhou Kejia drew 0-0 in Super League on November 4, 2022.

The match was played at Dongxihu Sports Centre in Wuhan.