Meizhou Kejia 2–1 Wuhan Zall: Result & Stats

Meizhou Kejia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Wuhan Zall

8/7/2022

Super League · Round 11Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Meizhou Kejia44%

×Draw25%

Wuhan Zall31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meizhou KejiaExpected goals in this matchWuhan Zall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.30

Meizhou Kejia

1.58

Wuhan Zall

1.30

Meizhou Kejia creates 22% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 53 away

1.48

creates per match

1.04

1.56

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia

1.48

Wuhan Zall

1.04

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia

1.56

Wuhan Zall

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Wuhan Zall+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Wuhan Zall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw

69%

Meizhou Kejia or Wuhan Zall

75%

Draw or Wuhan Zall

56%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

22%

Wuhan Zall wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

79%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

47%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

21%

Wuhan Zall 1+ goals

73%

Wuhan Zall 2+ goals

37%

Wuhan Zall 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

58%

Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.56 · 62 matches

Wuhan Zall away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.68 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.48 + Wuhan Zall defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.58

Wuhan Zall attack 1.04 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more

44%

level

25%

Wuhan Zall scores more

31%

Meizhou Kejia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff