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Meizhou Kejia vs Wuhan Zall — League One 2018

Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wuhan Zall
Wuhan Zall
5/20/2018League OneLeague One · Round 13Wuhua People's Stadium (Wuhua)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Meizhou Kejia36%
×Draw24%
Wuhan Zall40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meizhou Kejia
1.47
Wuhan Zall
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 13 away

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.79
Wuhan Zall
1.85

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.26
Wuhan Zall
1.15

finishing

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par
Wuhan Zall+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Wuhan Zall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw
60%
Meizhou Kejia or Wuhan Zall
76%
Draw or Wuhan Zall
64%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
17%
Wuhan Zall wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
77%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
43%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
18%
Wuhan Zall 1+ goals
79%
Wuhan Zall 2+ goals
46%
Wuhan Zall 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
47%
Wuhan Zall (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.26 · 58 matches

Wuhan Zall away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.79 + Wuhan Zall defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.47

Wuhan Zall attack 1.85 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more
36%
level
24%
Wuhan Zall scores more
40%

Wuhan Zall at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wuhan Zall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Meizhou Kejia 0–0 Wuhan Zall

Meizhou Kejia and Wuhan Zall drew 0-0 in League One on May 20, 2018.

The match was played at Wuhua People's Stadium (Wuhua).