Wuhan Three Towns 1–0 Qingdao Jonoon

Wuhan Three Towns

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Qingdao Jonoon

Pedro Henrique 20' (pen)

5/5/2024

Super League · Round 10Wuhan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns56%

×Draw22%

Qingdao Jonoon22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuhan Three TownsExpected goals in this matchQingdao Jonoon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.13

Wuhan Three Towns

1.93

Qingdao Jonoon

1.13

Wuhan Three Towns creates 71% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 31 away

1.65

creates per match

1.00

1.26

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns

1.65

Qingdao Jonoon

1.00

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns

1.26

Qingdao Jonoon

2.21

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns-0.36scores less

Qingdao Jonoon-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

Qingdao Jonoon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw

78%

Wuhan Three Towns or Qingdao Jonoon

78%

Draw or Qingdao Jonoon

44%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

33%

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

85%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

57%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

30%

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals

68%

Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals

31%

Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

72%

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.26 · 24 matches

Qingdao Jonoon away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.21 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.65 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.93

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.00 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

56%

level

22%

Qingdao Jonoon scores more

22%

Wuhan Three Towns at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

Mu Pengfei

Qingdao Jonoon · G

8.9

Match Events

20'

Pedro HenriquePenalty

32'

Hailong Li

46'

He Chao← Tao Qianglong

46'

Liu Jiashen← M. Milović

49'

Hanwen Deng

52'

Liu Jiashen

58'

Asqer Afrden← Liu Yue

60'

Diego Lopes← Chen Chunxin

60'

Wang Chien-Ming← Long Wei

75'

Zhang Tao← Liu Ruofan

80'

Zhang Wei← Zhong Jinbao

80'

Zheng Long← Hu Jinghang

83'

Zhipeng Jiang

87'

Park Ji-soo

90+7'

Chao He

90+3'

Ablahan Haliq← Darlan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WuhanQingdao

Overview

56%Possession44%

20Total Shots8

2.67Expected Goals (xG)0.66

8Corners2

16Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots8

10On Target5

7Off Target3

3Blocked0

10Inside Box4

10Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

512Total Passes413

449Accurate Passes336

88%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves8

Discipline

16Fouls13

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0