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Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns — Super League 2026

Qingdao Jonoon
Qingdao Jonoon
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Wuhan Three Towns
Wuhan Three Towns
E. Kangwa 32' (pen)
Tao Qianglong 77'
9/15/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 25Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Qingdao Jonoon45%
×Draw24%
Wuhan Three Towns31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Jonoon
1.67
Wuhan Three Towns
1.33

Qingdao Jonoon creates 26% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 22 away

creates per match

Qingdao Jonoon
1.44
Wuhan Three Towns
1.04

allows per match

Qingdao Jonoon
1.63
Wuhan Three Towns
1.89

finishing

Qingdao Jonoon-0.11scores less
Wuhan Three Towns-0.04on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Jonoon ↓

Wuhan Three Towns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Qingdao Jonoon or draw
69%
Qingdao Jonoon or Wuhan Three Towns
76%
Draw or Wuhan Three Towns
55%

Winning margin

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+
24%
Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals
81%
Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals
50%
Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals
23%
Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals
74%
Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals
38%
Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)
60%
Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Jonoon at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

Wuhan Three Towns away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.89 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.44 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.67

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.04 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Qingdao Jonoon scores more
45%
level
24%
Wuhan Three Towns scores more
31%

Qingdao Jonoon at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Qingdao Jonoon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
Park Ji-SooWuhan Three TownsWuhan Three Towns · D
7.3

Match Events

19'
Yibo Sha
32'
E. KangwaPenalty
46'
Chen Chunxin← Sha Yibo
46'
Romário Baldé← Asqer Afrden
70'
Denny Wang Yi
77'
Tao Qianglong
82'
Song Wenjie← Diego Lopes
89'
Song Long← E. Kangwa
89'
Liu Yue← Liu Ruofan
90+3'
Nikola Radmanovac

Possession

41%Qingdao

Shots

9Qingdao

Pass accuracy

47%Qingdao

Statistics

QingdaoWuhan
Overview
41%Possession59%
9Total Shots14
6Corners3
18Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots14
2On Target5
7Off Target7
0Blocked2
7Inside Box9
2Outside Box5
Passing
41%Possession59%
314Total Passes466
219Accurate Passes369
70%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
Discipline
18Fouls14
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

Super League: Qingdao Jonoon 1–1 Wuhan Three Towns

Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns drew 1-1 in Super League on September 15, 2024.

Goals: E. Kangwa (32' pen), Tao Qianglong (77').

Wuhan Three Towns controlled possession (59%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Qingdao West Coast University City Stadium in Qingdao.