Qingdao Jonoon 1–0 Wuhan Three Towns

Qingdao Jonoon

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Wuhan Three Towns

D. Lamkel Ze 10'

11/2/2025

Super League · Round 29Qingdao Youth Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Qingdao Jonoon45%

×Draw24%

Wuhan Three Towns31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao JonoonExpected goals in this matchWuhan Three Towns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.33

Qingdao Jonoon

1.67

Wuhan Three Towns

1.33

Qingdao Jonoon creates 26% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 22 away

1.44

creates per match

1.04

1.63

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Qingdao Jonoon

1.44

Wuhan Three Towns

1.04

allows per match

Qingdao Jonoon

1.63

Wuhan Three Towns

1.89

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Qingdao Jonoon-0.11scores less

Wuhan Three Towns-0.04on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Jonoon ↓

Wuhan Three Towns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Qingdao Jonoon or draw

69%

Qingdao Jonoon or Wuhan Three Towns

76%

Draw or Wuhan Three Towns

55%

Winning margin

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+

24%

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals

81%

Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals

50%

Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals

23%

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

74%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

38%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)

60%

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Jonoon at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

Wuhan Three Towns away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.89 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.44 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.67

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.04 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Qingdao Jonoon scores more

45%

level

24%

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

31%

Qingdao Jonoon at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Qingdao Jonoon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Liu Junshuai

Qingdao Jonoon · D

8.2

Match Events

10'

D. Lamkel Ze

46'

Kaimu Zheng

46'

Xiao Kun← Lin Chuangyi

46'

M. Palacios← Shen Zigui

63'

Song Long← Jin Yonghao

64'

Yiming Liu

64'

Liu Yiming← Darlan

64'

Long Wei← Zheng Kaimu

78'

Che Shiwei← Wellington Silva

78'

Zheng Haoqian← A. Tudorie

82'

86'

90+2'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QingdaoWuhan

Overview

49%Possession51%

10Total Shots9

1.38Expected Goals (xG)0.75

1Corners2

12Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots9

2On Target3

7Off Target3

1Blocked3

6Inside Box4

4Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

418Total Passes430

330Accurate Passes322

79%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides4