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Wuhan Three Towns vs Chengdu Better City — Super League 2026

Wuhan Three Towns
Wuhan Three Towns
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
Wellington Silva 71' (pen)
4/17/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 6Wuhan Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns39%
×Draw24%
Chengdu Better City37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wuhan Three Towns
1.52
Chengdu Better City
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 26 away

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns
1.80
Chengdu Better City
1.77

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns
1.20
Chengdu Better City
1.24

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns-0.21scores less
Chengdu Better City+0.15scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

Chengdu Better City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw
63%
Wuhan Three Towns or Chengdu Better City
76%
Draw or Chengdu Better City
61%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+
19%
Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals
78%
Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals
45%
Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals
20%
Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
77%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
43%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)
51%
Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 17 matches

Chengdu Better City away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.24 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.80 + Chengdu Better City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.52

Chengdu Better City attack 1.77 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more
39%
level
24%
Chengdu Better City scores more
37%

Wuhan Three Towns at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wuhan Three Towns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
Liu DianzuoChengdu Better CityChengdu Better City · G
7.7

Match Events

22'
Kilian Bevis
40'
Yang Ming-Yang
62'
Wang Ziming← Felipe Silva
65'
Han Pengfei← Y. Li
68'
Kang Wang
71'
Wang Jinxian← L. Jiang
71'
Wellington SilvaPenalty
72'
Jhonder Cádiz
77'
Wang Denny← Wang Kang
77'
Long Wei← Liao Chengjian
78'
He Yiran
82'
Wang Dongsheng← He Yiran
88'
Abduweli Behram← Wellington Silva
90'
Xia Xiaoxi← K. Bevis

Possession

52%Wuhan

Shots

15Wuhan

Pass accuracy

51%Wuhan

Statistics

WuhanChengdu
Overview
52%Possession48%
15Total Shots9
1.73Expected Goals (xG)1.67
5Corners4
9Fouls17
Shots
15Total Shots9
2On Target3
10Off Target4
3Blocked2
8Inside Box6
7Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
388Total Passes369
299Accurate Passes271
77%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls17
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Super League: Wuhan Three Towns 0–1 Chengdu Better City

Chengdu Better City beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-0 in Super League on April 17, 2026.

Goals: Wellington Silva (71' pen).

Wuhan Three Towns controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Wuhan Sports Centre in Wuhan.