Wuhan Three Towns 2–2 Chengdu Better City

Wuhan Three Towns

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Chengdu Better City

Gustavo Sauer 75'

A. Tudorie 15'

Wei Shihao 81' (pen)

A. Tudorie 40' (OG)

6/29/2025

Super League · Round 16Wuhan Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Wuhan Three Towns37%

×Draw24%

Chengdu Better City39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wuhan Three TownsExpected goals in this matchChengdu Better City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.54

Wuhan Three Towns

1.48

Chengdu Better City

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 28 away

1.71

creates per match

1.86

1.22

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Wuhan Three Towns

1.71

Chengdu Better City

1.86

allows per match

Wuhan Three Towns

1.22

Chengdu Better City

1.24

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Wuhan Three Towns-0.18scores less

Chengdu Better City+0.03on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wuhan Three Towns ↓

Chengdu Better City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Wuhan Three Towns or draw

61%

Wuhan Three Towns or Chengdu Better City

76%

Draw or Chengdu Better City

63%

Winning margin

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

17%

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

77%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

43%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

19%

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals

79%

Chengdu Better City 2+ goals

45%

Chengdu Better City 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

48%

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wuhan Three Towns at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.22 · 19 matches

Chengdu Better City away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.24 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.71 + Chengdu Better City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chengdu Better City attack 1.86 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

37%

level

24%

Chengdu Better City scores more

39%

Chengdu Better City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Gustavo Sauer

Wuhan Three Towns · M

7.7

Match Events

3'

Guan He

15'

A. Tudorie

40'

A. TudorieOwn goal

69'

Zhong Jinbao← Zheng Haoqian

69'

P. Delgado← Romulo

69'

Yan Dinghao← Yang Ming-Yang

70'

Zheng Haoqian

75'

Gustavo Sauer↳ Zhong Jinbao

76'

Liu Yiming← He Guan

76'

Wang Denny← Chen Zhechao

78'

Wang Dongsheng← Y. Gurfinkel

78'

Yuan Mincheng← Han Pengfei

81'

Wei ShihaoPenalty

82'

Park Ji-soo

83'

Zheng Kaimu← Gustavo Sauer

83'

86'

90+9'

90+5'

90+8'

90+2'

I. Kallon← Wei Shihao

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WuhanChengdu

Overview

37%Possession63%

5Total Shots16

2Corners6

9Fouls14

Shots

5Total Shots16

3On Target6

2Off Target9

0Blocked1

3Inside Box12

2Outside Box4

Passing

37%Possession63%

279Total Passes484

203Accurate Passes411

73%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls14

5Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Wuhan Three Towns vs Chengdu Better City

Wuhan Three Towns and Chengdu Better City drew 2-2 in Super League on June 29, 2025.

Goals: A. Tudorie (15', 40' o.g.), Gustavo Sauer (75'), Wei Shihao (81' pen).

Chengdu Better City controlled possession (63%) and registered 16 shots to 5.

The match was played at Wuhan Sports Centre in Wuhan.

Wuhan Three Towns vs Chengdu Better City — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Wuhan Three Towns vs Chengdu Better City