Chengdu Better City 1–0 Wuhan Three Towns

Chengdu Better City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wuhan Three Towns

Felipe Silva 59'

2/22/2025

Super League · Round 1Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Chengdu Better City62%

×Draw20%

Wuhan Three Towns17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chengdu Better CityExpected goals in this matchWuhan Three Towns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.00

Chengdu Better City

2.09

Wuhan Three Towns

1.00

Chengdu Better City creates 109% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 21 away

2.27

creates per match

1.08

0.91

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Chengdu Better City

2.27

Wuhan Three Towns

1.08

allows per match

Chengdu Better City

0.91

Wuhan Three Towns

1.92

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Chengdu Better City-0.10scores less

Wuhan Three Towns-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Wuhan Three Towns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw

83%

Chengdu Better City or Wuhan Three Towns

80%

Draw or Wuhan Three Towns

38%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+

39%

Wuhan Three Towns wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals

88%

Chengdu Better City 2+ goals

62%

Chengdu Better City 3+ goals

34%

Wuhan Three Towns 1+ goals

63%

Wuhan Three Towns 2+ goals

26%

Wuhan Three Towns 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)

78%

Wuhan Three Towns (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.91 · 29 matches

Wuhan Three Towns away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.92 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 2.27 + Wuhan Three Towns defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.09

Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.08 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more

62%

level

20%

Wuhan Three Towns scores more

17%

Chengdu Better City at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Romulo

Chengdu Better City · F

8.3

Match Events

-5'

8'

21'

49'

53'

58'

59'

63'

Long Wei← Wang Jinxian

63'

He Guan← Liu Yiming

63'

M. Palacios← Liao Chengjian

70'

Wei Shihao← I. Kallon

74'

Tim ChowGoal cancelled

78'

Zhong Jinbao← Zheng Kaimu

82'

Zhang Tao← Chen Zhechao

85'

Shihao Wei

87'

Guan He

87'

Y. Li← Yang Shuai

90+6'

Liao Lisheng← Yang Ming-Yang

90+6'

Li Moyu← Romulo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChengduWuhan

Overview

58%Possession42%

24Total Shots9

2.67Expected Goals (xG)0.86

8Corners2

14Fouls18

Shots

24Total Shots9

8On Target2

9Off Target4

7Blocked3

14Inside Box5

10Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

426Total Passes312

340Accurate Passes230

80%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

14Fouls18

2Yellow Cards6

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns

Chengdu Better City beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-0 in Super League on February 22, 2025.

Goals: Felipe Silva (59').

Chengdu Better City controlled possession (58%) and registered 24 shots to 9.

The match was played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park in Chengdu.

Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Three Towns