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Wrexham vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Wrexham
Wrexham
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lincoln
Lincoln
T. Darikwa 67' (OG)
11/26/2024League OneLeague One · Round 11STōK Cae Ras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wrexham50%
×Draw26%
Lincoln24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.50
Lincoln
0.96

Wrexham creates 56% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 156 away

creates per match

Wrexham
1.78
Lincoln
1.26

allows per match

Wrexham
0.65
Lincoln
1.22

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par
Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
76%
Wrexham or Lincoln
74%
Draw or Lincoln
50%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
25%
Lincoln wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
78%
Wrexham 2+ goals
44%
Wrexham 3+ goals
19%
Lincoln 1+ goals
62%
Lincoln 2+ goals
25%
Lincoln 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
67%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.65 · 23 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.78 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.50

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Wrexham defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wrexham scores more
50%
level
26%
Lincoln scores more
24%

Wrexham at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
G. DobsonWrexhamWrexham · M
8.2

Match Events

11'
Lewis Brunt
64'
F. Draper← B. Cadamarteri
67'
T. DarikwaOwn goal
73'
P. Mullin← E. Lee
73'
E. Hamilton← E. Ring
77'
A. Cannon← M. James
82'
J. McKiernan← C. McGrandles
82'
R. Street← J. Makama
89'
T. O'Connor← O. Rathbone

Possession

56%Wrexham

Shots

11Wrexham

Pass accuracy

51%Wrexham

Statistics

WrexhamLincoln
Overview
56%Possession44%
11Total Shots14
1Corners6
10Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots14
3On Target1
6Off Target9
2Blocked4
10Inside Box10
1Outside Box4
Passing
56%Possession44%
502Total Passes387
393Accurate Passes292
78%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls13
1Yellow Cards0
4Offsides2

League One: Wrexham 1–0 Lincoln

Wrexham beat Lincoln 1-0 in League One on November 26, 2024.

Goals: T. Darikwa (67' o.g.).

Wrexham controlled possession (56%) and registered 11 shots to 14.

The match was played at STōK Cae Ras in Wrecsam.