Wrexham 1–2 Lincoln: Result & Stats | League #43

Wrexham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Lincoln

H. Bencherif 82'

H. Anderson 45'

L. Waterfall 31'

10/4/2016

League #43 · Round 17Racecourse Ground (Wrexham (Wrecsam))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Wrexham39%

×Draw25%

Lincoln36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WrexhamExpected goals in this matchLincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.38

Wrexham

1.44

Lincoln

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.50

creates per match

1.25

1.50

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Wrexham

1.50

Lincoln

1.25

allows per match

Wrexham

1.50

Lincoln

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par

Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw

64%

Wrexham or Lincoln

75%

Draw or Lincoln

61%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+

18%

Lincoln wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals

76%

Wrexham 2+ goals

42%

Wrexham 3+ goals

18%

Lincoln 1+ goals

75%

Lincoln 2+ goals

40%

Lincoln 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)

52%

Lincoln (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.50 + Lincoln defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lincoln attack 1.25 + Wrexham defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wrexham scores more

39%

level

25%

Lincoln scores more

36%

Wrexham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

31'

45'

54'

54'

79'

A. Power← B. Wood

82'

H. Bencherif

84'

T. Champion← M. Rhead

Wrexham

Lincoln

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: G. Mills

54'▲C. Powell←▼R. Evans

54'▲S. Harrad←▼J. Rooney

Wrexham substitutes

PowellHarradBarryMcDonaghNortey

Manager: D. Cowley

20'▲J. Muldoon←▼M. Bonne

79'▲A. Power←▼B. Wood

84'▲T. Champion←▼M. Rhead

Lincoln substitutes

MuldoonPowerChampionMcCombeHawkridge

Match Recap: Wrexham vs Lincoln

Lincoln beat Wrexham 2-1 in League #43 on October 4, 2016.

Goals: L. Waterfall (31'), H. Anderson (45'), H. Bencherif (82').

The match was played at Racecourse Ground (Wrexham (Wrecsam)).

Wrexham vs Lincoln — League #43 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Wrexham vs Lincoln